30/09/2015 A deep cyclone in the Western Mediterranean?

A cyclogenesis ocurring in the Western Mediterranean could develop a deep cyclone close to Balearic Islands during the next hours. In fact, some meteorological models seem to develop some kind of tropical like cyclone (Medicane – Mediterranean Hurricane).

For example, this is the forecast of HIRLAM, showing a cyclone at 0.16º spatial resolution

Hirlam_pressure

and very strong winds at surface level (0.05º version of the model)

Hirlam

 

But with no evidences of warm core at 850hPa or 500hPa levels.

There are a lot of centers running WRF versions, and most of them clearly develop a deep cyclone, some of them showing tropical characteristics. For example, WRF-ARW GFS of Lamma consortium (12km spatial resolution), shows a warm core at 850hpa for Wednesday evening in the northwest of Mallorca island.

WRF_850

At 500hPa the warm core is not clear, but there is a small closed isohypse at the same region

zt500z1_web_12

And at surface level, a deep cyclone is present

mslpz1_web_12

During the last years, some Medicanes were developed by WRF models as a consequence of artifacts in the model. Because of that, we suspect that in this case, this deep cyclone could be, again, some kind of artifact.  Let’s see what happens!

 

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