30/09/2015 A deep cyclone in the Western Mediterranean?

A cyclogenesis ocurring in the Western Mediterranean could develop a deep cyclone close to Balearic Islands during the next hours. In fact, some meteorological models seem to develop some kind of tropical like cyclone (Medicane – Mediterranean Hurricane).

For example, this is the forecast of HIRLAM, showing a cyclone at 0.16º spatial resolution


and very strong winds at surface level (0.05º version of the model)



But with no evidences of warm core at 850hPa or 500hPa levels.

There are a lot of centers running WRF versions, and most of them clearly develop a deep cyclone, some of them showing tropical characteristics. For example, WRF-ARW GFS of Lamma consortium (12km spatial resolution), shows a warm core at 850hpa for Wednesday evening in the northwest of Mallorca island.


At 500hPa the warm core is not clear, but there is a small closed isohypse at the same region


And at surface level, a deep cyclone is present


During the last years, some Medicanes were developed by WRF models as a consequence of artifacts in the model. Because of that, we suspect that in this case, this deep cyclone could be, again, some kind of artifact.  Let’s see what happens!


Weather forecast 24/08/2015

Monday: Sunny weather is expected in Balearic Islands, with maximum temperatures around 30ºC. Peak values could reach 31-32ºC in some villages of Mallorca, like Sa Pobla or Llubi.

Southwest winds will blow during the morning, rotating rapidly to West (in Ibiza and Formentera) and Northwest (in the rest of the islands).

1.5-1.6m waves are possible during the morning

Following days: Atmospheric stability with maximum temperatures around 30-32ºC and minimum temperatures around 20-22ºC (maybe around 23-24ºC in the coast)