30/09/2015 A deep cyclone in the Western Mediterranean?

A cyclogenesis ocurring in the Western Mediterranean could develop a deep cyclone close to Balearic Islands during the next hours. In fact, some meteorological models seem to develop some kind of tropical like cyclone (Medicane – Mediterranean Hurricane).

For example, this is the forecast of HIRLAM, showing a cyclone at 0.16º spatial resolution


and very strong winds at surface level (0.05º version of the model)



But with no evidences of warm core at 850hPa or 500hPa levels.

There are a lot of centers running WRF versions, and most of them clearly develop a deep cyclone, some of them showing tropical characteristics. For example, WRF-ARW GFS of Lamma consortium (12km spatial resolution), shows a warm core at 850hpa for Wednesday evening in the northwest of Mallorca island.


At 500hPa the warm core is not clear, but there is a small closed isohypse at the same region


And at surface level, a deep cyclone is present


During the last years, some Medicanes were developed by WRF models as a consequence of artifacts in the model. Because of that, we suspect that in this case, this deep cyclone could be, again, some kind of artifact.  Let’s see what happens!


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